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tv   Nightly Business Report  PBS  December 25, 2015 1:00am-1:31am PST

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this is nightly business report. >> growth versus value. it is great investment debate heading into the new year. where should you put your money for 2016. >> turning point as more people shop online what does the future hold for all of those malls and all of that real estate. >> white christmas, no way, not on the east coast at least and not on the slopes and that's creating headaches for businesses that rely on snow all that and more on nightly business report for thursday, december 24th, christmas eve. >> good evening, everyone. merry christmas eve. >> welcome one and all. well, there was not, however, a lot of holiday cheer on wall street today. the grinch, yes, the grinch was out and about after a week of
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strong gains. but the major averages did manage to record their best week since late november. volume was light on this holiday short and trading session and by the early close today the dow jones industrials were off 50 points to 17,552. nasdaq gained a wopping 2.5 points and the s&p 500 dropped 3. for the week, all the major averages rose about 2.5% or more. oil had a big week with prices for domestic crude rising roughly 9%. >> but be of good cheer there was some positive news today on the economy. jobless claims fell to a near 42 year low. the number of americans filing for unemployment benefits dropped more than expected last week as the labor department continues to tighten. initial claims declined 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 267,000 for the weekended december 19th. >> well, consumer spending of course makes up a huge portion of economic activity in the
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united states and like wreaths, eggnog and carols last minute shopping is part of the christmas tradition. this year is no different with retailers hoping a late rush will add sparkle to what has been a pretty tame holiday shopping season. mary thompson reports from the queen center mall in elmhurst new york. >> on the day before christmas all through this mall some shoppers were running to get gifts for all. >> we're last minute during the first minute of the last minute. >> the international council of shopping centers saying as of monday a quarter of americans had christmas shopping to do and 10% hadn't started. >> as a last minute shopper i think i'm definitely going to spend a lot more than i would have a month ago but tis the season. >> most last minute shoppers tend to bargain hunters waiting for steep mark downs during the final countdown to christmas. this year though the anticipated
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last minute rush is being spurred by another formidable force, mother nature. >> overall we've had a very warm christmas in the northeast and the midwest and people have been outside and perhaps they need to finish their shopping. >> analysts did see a pick up on the saturday before christmas. some shoppers unable to find gifts online. >> this year out of stock online items are running 10 to 15% higher than last year. a lot of e-commerce companies gave early discounts and now this is driving shoppers back into the stores. >> but as consumers spend early online it's hard to find some of this year's hot gifts like star wars toys and the pie in the face game. sensing a trend, one couple bought in november and cashed in. >> one of the big toys was like pie face and we got it and we had the opportunity to sell it on e bay and make profit on it. >> the season of giving giving back to those that planned ahead
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for the business rush. >> we saw a growing number of people shop online. that number is continuing to grow. what is happening to all of those malls? let's bring in the managing director. i'm one of those people that for the first time did every bit of shopping online. so what is happening to the malls? you say there might be an ice age starting here in the retail sector. >> there's a retail ice age with destruction and as the anchors go some rollover and some close, some of the shopg owners go bankrupt and they'll be a massive retail rationalization between next year through 2019. >> is there a distinction to be made from the great malls with the sort of headline stores and the b and c level malls.
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are they the most vulnerable? >> you're completely correct. malls anchored by an apple store or in order storm will be good for the foreseeable future. it's the bnc malls anchored by a k-smart or sears that are the ones to worry about. >> is it a regional issue or something we're seeing across the board, across the united states? >> we're seeing it throughout the continental u.s. and our studies across canada. we also studied malls in the middle east, europe, asia. our family company was bought out by metro, lord and taylor. and a competitor in germany on the european continent did not survive. department stores are dead and with the death of department stores come the mall. >> online shopping is one reason that has the can dahlized mall traffic. another i wonder is whether the move of the millennials back into the inner city cores or the
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near suburbs mean that those malls that take a car to get to aren't getting the traffic workers tent to not shop at malls on saturday and sunday and hence the shift online as you referenced rather than on land shopping. >> so thank you so much for joining us in studio. very quickly, what happens to all the real estate when the malls close? >> two things, some of the mall real estate becomes residential. some get back into agricultural. diversified developers and general growth properties. they got hit in the last retail recession. likely to get hit again. >> thank you so much. thank you for joining us. >> all right. man. >> thanks. >> all right. the warm weather is sending a chill through part of the leisure economy.
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instead of snow capped mountain tops the northeast is seeing green grass, mud, on the slopes. threatening ski businesses and businesses related to the skiing industry. danielle has the story from new remain. >> ski resorts in maine are dreaming of a white christmas vacation week. instead of snow new england is breaking records for high temperatures. even the overnight lows have been too warm at times to fire up the snow guns. >> it's hot hotter than last year. >> it's actually too hot for a ski mask. >> they have been making snow any time it tips to the low 30s and they have been able to open 33 trails among all the patches of green grass. >> it's more than expected coming up. >> instead of the holiday crowds resorts have been getting cancellations.
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>> to tell you the truth we were thinking of cancelling. >> ski resorts in the northeast could get their break in the forecast early next week when high temperatures are expected to be in the 30s. there's even the possibility of real snow. >> to the stock market where the dow and the s&p 500 are basically flat for the year despite seeing the return of volatility but as we enter 2016 there's a big debate on wall street and it centers around investing in value versus growth stock. >> growth is associated with companies growing earnings. value is usually associated with relatively flat or declining earnings growth but often with lower prices and a higher dividend yield. this is often associated with consumer stock. there's a big difference in performance this year. growth stocks are up 4% as a group. value stocks are down about 4%. who is going to win in 2016?
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2015 has been a very unusual year. marathon oil, u.s. steal ael an caterpillar down 20% or more. they're under the assumption that business will gradually improve but making a call to these value names to out perform in 2016 is a tough sale. here's why, for value to work, several things have to go right. first oil has to stabilize and rise even if modestly. second the global economy has to show signs of growth. even if just modestly. finally the fed has to be very slow raising rates. doesn't sound like much but it's a tall order. the consensus is another year of below trend growth and the oil will struggle to rise, at least in the first half of the year. for nightly business report, i'm at the new york stock exchange. >> our next guest says growth stocks will out pace value in the first half of 2016. he's our friend, chief
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investment officer and joins us now to talk a little bit more about that particular point. growth versus value and his overall outlook for the market but you think we're in a profit recession with earnings trending down again. that usually isn't the great recipe for growth stocks. >> yeah. it's interesting. we will generally shift between growth and value. we are more favorably inclined with growth right now and job made some valid points. for value to regain it's lead, which it is relatively cheap. value is normally cheap but it's really cheap right now but a lot of good things have to happen and all come into alignment. i'm not sure it has to happen this time around. at least not yet. >> it's all tied into credit conditions and with oil prices low credit will remain tight.
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what do you see as the outlook for credit in 2016? >> it's expanded dramatically with an easy central bank and here at home and abroad. the fed now starting to tighten. that put pressure on credits. the credit markets started to sense that stress back in april and in fact it was about the time when the average stock started underperforming the market itself and was consistent with the tightness we saw in april. it would continue into 2016 and would make heavily indebted value stocks under that much more stress. >> you know, 2015 is probably going to end no matter what happens next week. with roughly flat gains. what do you expect in 2016? a better year? a similar year? what. >> yeah, it's going to be interesting.
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really a lot of it depends on the underlying economy. i think there are a lot of assumptions built into valuations that really didn't come true this year and that's part of the reason why we saw sort of this just, you know, sideways volatility. the fact is that revenue growth has been declining now for the last three quarters, earnings growth have been declining for the last four quarters so we do need to see a ramp up in growth. a lot of the pieces are in place for that we're seeing wages rise. gas prices are low. there's a huge dividend there. we'd like to see some spending and of course based on what we're seeing in the malls this time around, it's just not th there. >> come up here to new jersey and get some warmer weather. >> still ahead, should you bet
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on blue chip stocks in the new year? well, our market monitor is going to tell you what he is buying. >> draft kings says it disagrees with the illinois attorney general. late yesterday the illinois ag said daily fantasy sports contracts amount to illegal gambling in the state. it will fight it in court and in the meantime will preserve the status quo. >> after a rough year for technology ipos in 2015 the names that may go public in 2016 probably aren't the ones you think. josh lipton has the details. >> only 28 technology companies
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entered the u.s. public markets this year. that's compared to 62 last year and some of those companies that did make a public debut haven't exactly wowed investors. pure storage is trading around it's ipo price of $17 and cloud storage company box is now some 40% off it's recent high. but there are reasons to believe there could be more tech exits in 2016. for one, more start ups might get dragged into the public markets. analysts say their valuations price them for perfection while the results came in somewhere below perfect. as a result, the private markets may no longer be as receptive forcing them to go public. names to watch, drop box, and jawbone which track and analyze venture capital.
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beyond being pushed into the public markets analysts highlight a smaller pipeline of companies that are solid enough to consider a public debut. using a range of metrics says companies to watch include many focused on areas such as analytics, data centers and securi security. the four they mentioned specifically, mule soft, octa. and even if there aren't more public debuts there could be more deals in silicon valley next year. >> we'll see more m&a going into next year because some of the companies will need to have homes that could continue to fund their operations and invest in their success. that might not always come from venture capital if you have a large valuation at this point. >> cnbc talked to more than two dozen vcs and tech investors and the consensus is that 2016 could be tougher for many tech start
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ups. a partner at institutional venture partners put it this way. the chief capital party is over. there are just a few drunk sailors who didn't hear the last call. the new mantra among venture capitalists in silicon valley is this. forget about those eye popping valuations, they say, and show us the liquidity. for nightly business report, i'm josh lipton in silicon valley. >> a dow component splits 2-1. nike split for class a and class b common shares went into effect today. shareholders will receive one extra share of nike stock for each share they already own and for the first day of trading at its new price nike share fell to 63.18. shares of sunedison rose after the renewable energy company says it was in talks with len dors to secure a new credit facility of $650 million. that sent the shares up to
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$5.91. >> puerto rico's electric power utility agreed to a deal on a restructuring of the debt. the move seen as a step to fix the island's economy. bonn insurers rose 8% and gained 2% on that news. the british drug maker astr astra zeneca interested in buying the u.s. drug developer. the daily mail reports that an offer would be worth about $46 a share. astra zprkseneca 34.14. >> hank smith, chief investment officer and last time he was on in july he recommended wells fargo which is down nearly 6%, jp morgan and united technologies which are off more than 4%. so quickly, hank, the first thing i want to say is happy holidays to you and what do you think about your picks that you said previously?
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do you still want to own them? >> i believe so. we still own them in our portfolios and we think that prospects are good and in each case you're getting an excellent dividend and dividend growth on top of that and you're not paying much. the valuations are attractive. >> blue chips you say are most attractive right now. why do you say that and what's one of your top picks? >> sure, we're not in the early stages of a bull mark for sure. that done mean this bull mark is going to end but we're at a stage where i don't think we should be speculating. we should be investing in solid blue chip franchise companies and three we like right now, e dupont, rather than dow because you merge with big dividend increase with dupont holding. ge that's an underperformer for much of the bull market is
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finally getting it's legs and starting. it's a good performer in the industrial space this year and also an activist shareholder there which is a positive. and more toward industrials away from ge capital. we think that is a positive and finally phillip morris international which has been a relative underperformer the last couple of years because of the strong dollar. our expectation is going forward. you're not going to see the dollar strength like you had in the past two years and money is going to flow toward phillip morris international. >> are you concerned at all hank about that dupont and dow merger that it could run into regulatory problems and could that be a stumbling block for your thesis? >> yes, that's always a possibility. particularly with this administration that's gotten more active in blocking mergers over the past year but there's not much -- really there's not
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much overlap in these two businesses. we think they can get that through. you have two activist investors on both sides. third point on dow side. so even if it doesn't happen i still think there's reason to create shareholder value with due up dupont. >> we know ge very well at this company. i wanted to ask you about streamlining to an industrial focus. is that why you think this company is one to watch in 2016? >> that's a big part of it. the way they systematically shed much of ge capital. with the new dod frank banking regulations it really doesn't make sense for ge as it did say 30, 20 years ago and so they're going to get a better valuation. be looked at much as an industrial company plus a 3% yield. you're getting above average yield on all three of these picks which i think is very attractive in this type of
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market environment. >> and a key point to watch for in 2016. thank you so much. happy holidays to you. >> and coming up, big business of santa and why companies see a lot of green when it comes to the man that wears red. >> here in the u.s. travel for the christmas holiday is expected to break records. as we reported aaa says the number of year end travellers will likely top 100 million. that's nearly one in every three americans taking a trip. not just by car but also by
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train. he's battling the crowds in our nation's capital. >> while unseasonably mild weather means no white christmas, an improving economy, and even cheaper air fares finds lots of travellers in the holiday spirit. >> i'm not used to christmas without snow. >> it's a christmas miracle. >> christmas eve travel so far has seen delays and cancellations at a minimum. just over 600 delays. nearly 50 cancellations by midday with some major east coast hubs impacted by rain and not snow. the projected 38 million airline passengers traveling during the 17 day holiday period for both christmas and new years caps what has been a very goodyear for the major airlines. holiday travel alone is up 3% from last year. and lower jet fuel costs along with the mild winter is helping the industry bottom line. >> when we have these winter seasons, we have very, very few cancellations over the last couple of months and looking
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forward for the next week weather looks good combined with the oil prices. it's really good financially with the airlines. >> 10 million americans, roughly one third of the population are expected to travel. the plain planes, trains and automobiles during the holiday season. for nightly business report. >> and on this christmas eve we look at the santa economy. there's a lot of money surrounding the man in the red suit and companies of all sizes are taking notice. courtney reagan takes a look at what some call santanomics. ♪ santa claus is coming to town ♪ >> it's the most well-known job in the world. so naturally you have to go to school for it. santa school, that is. >> i have been coming here about 13 years now. >> most important thing i learned is to be jolly. >> this is the harvard of santa claus schools. >> the not for profit charles w.
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howard school is the world's oldest but not the only santa school. >> thanks for coming. >> owners holly and tom have experience on their side starting with the school's founder. >> charlie was actually the technical director on the original miracle on 34th street as far as what santa should be and what he should do. >> founded in 1937 with a hand full of trainees this year's class numbers 130 students and there's a wait list every year. the school now packs the learnings of st. nick into 45 hours over three days. >> it's a call. anybody can put on the red suit and grow a beard but they can't all be santa clauss. >> let's be clear. these are santa's helpers because everyone knows there's only one santa claus and his helpers aren't just supporting the man in the big red suit but an entire economy around the business of santa too. santa school starts around $400.
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a good costume suit can cost around $2,500 and don't forget the boots, the gloves, the beard, a fake one with wig can run $1,500 but grooming a real beard costs $10 a month. clients pay santa from 30 to a couple of hundred dollars an hour but for many it's not about the money. >> paid, cookies, milk, all kinds of cookies. it's fantastic. >> santa brings happiness and hope to children and families. but he also brings in traffic and in some cases revenue for malls and others like indoor amusement park i play america. >> i think about 10 to 15% of our holiday business is derived from the fact that we have santa here. >> santa visits are revolving like here at dream place which is a production by dreamworks. it has five rooms with interactive digital screens where kids of all ages can come to make memory with santa. something you can't do online.
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they run dream place providing the photographer and santa staff with contracts at many of america's malls. employing over 4,000 people this year and the santa business is booming. their sales have grown by 50% since 2010. for nightly business report, i'm courtney reagan. >> a lot of great holiday stories. >> lucky santa there. >> all right then. well that is nightly business report for tonight. thank you for having me this week and thanks for watching. >> and merry christmas to you sharon. >> thank you, tiler. >> have a great evening everyone. join us tomorrow for a special christmas edition of nbr.
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